Sunday, July 29, 2007

SHINZO ABE, BUSH'S JAPANESE PAL, SUFFERS CATACLYSMIC DEFEAT IN ELECTIONS-- JUST AS THE GOP WILL NEXT YEAR

>

Japan's Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, is a right wing kook cut from the Bush mold. And, like Bush, his widespread unpopularity has turned to disdain and even hatred. That unpopularity and disdain was expressed today at the polls when Japanese voters elected a new upper house of Parliament, something like our Senate. And the same way that most political observers see well-known Bush's rubber stamp senators like Susan Collins (R-ME), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Norm Coleman (R-MN), Pete "Sneaky Pete" Domenici (R-NM), Ted Stevens (R-AK), John Sununu (R-NH), possibly even John Cornyn (R-TX), Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), and John Warner (R-VA), many of Abe's most loyal rubber stamps went down to ignominious defeat today at the hands of the Democratic Party.
The main opposition Democratic Party seized control of the upper house by a landslide, capturing seats not only in cities but also in rural districts that have long been strongholds of the Liberal Democratic Party. The rout was widespread, with household names in the governing party falling one after another before opposition newcomers.

In a devastating rebuke to Mr. Abe, angry voters punished him for his mishandling of bread-and-butter issues and a series of scandals in a government seemingly in disarray. Past prime ministers have resigned in the face of similar losses, but Mr. Abe, even before all votes were counted, tried to head off inevitable questions about his leadership.

Instead of working on actual bread-and-butter problems that Japanese voters are concerned with, Abe "rammed through laws to instill patriotism in schools, elevate the status of Japan’s military and prepare for a referendum on revising the pacifist Constitution." Of the 121 seats being contested, Abe's coalition needed 64 to maintain a majority. They eked out only 43.

Unlike Republicans in the U.S., who would do anything to disassociate themselves from Bush and Cheney but can't, the misnamed Liberal Democrats (they are a right-wing party, a kind of cross between the GOP and the Nazi Party) are expected to kick Abe out of the leadership before the next election. The leader of the Democratic Party, Ichiro Ozawa, "focused on building support in rural areas whose backing the Liberal Democrats had secured for decades with public works projects and agricultural subsidies. Results showed that Mr. Ozawa’s party won overwhelmingly in rural Japan." It might be worth noting that last year in the U.S., the Democratic Party defeated quite a few Republican incumbents in once-safe rural strongholds. In 2008, Democrats are likely to win at least 2 dozen House seats in largely rural areas, from upstate New York to Illinois, Ohio, Missouri, Arizona, and California.

Labels:

1 Comments:

At 3:18 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

I have a lot of problems with your drawing connections between the defeat of Shinzo Abe and his "buddy" GWB (this is the first I've heard they were buddies beyond the relationship that all Japanese PMs and American Presidents have).

Anyway, your commentary misses the biggest issues why the LDP was defeated this weekend. Graft and mismanagement. His Agriculture Minister committed suicide rather than face corruption charges, millions of pension contribution records have been just "lost". His administration has become so ineffective that he couldn't even discipline his Health Minister, Hakuo Yanagisawa, after he described women as "baby machines", because Yanagisawa is one his only friends left in Nagatacho. While he entered with high hopes, Abe has never been ready for prime-time, locked up in legislative paralysis since arriving in office.

But I guess my main point is that national politics in Japan are not like politics here. First of all, the LDP is not "somewhere between the GOP and the Nazis". While some members of it might be of such a mindset (including Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara, who has one of the largest direct democratic mandates on earth), the LDP has a staggering array of ideologies, from significantly leftish to hardline rightwing (Japanese still has a Communist Party somehow for the far lefties). The most important election for prime minister is not the actual election, but the caucus within the party that chooses the LDP candidate. Why? because they always win! The LDP isn't ideological, it's pragmatic. They're there just to get power. Dozens of "factions" within the LDP have the different ideologies. That's why the supposedly "right-wing" party passed laws banning the export of arms to countries at war (it's really hard for Japanese companies to send the US weapons right now), as well as capping defense spending to 1% of the budget.

The DPJ victory in the provinces this weekend wasn't overwhelming, but it was a radical change in the political landscape, perhaps as astounding as the Republican sweep of The South in 94.

As for Abe being forced out, that's normal in Japanese politics. The party chief (and/or PM) always resigns when the party does poorly in elections. Abe himself resigned as Party Secretary in 2004 after the last upper house election. This dynamic is why Japan went through 10 PMs in 12 years in the 90's, and almost as many governments as Italy's since WWII.

I've rambled a lot, and I apologize, but, in short, Japanese politics are really not like politics here, so hold off on crowing victory yet.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home